All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful – StatsbyLopez

As in the moments following the 2016 US election, win probabilities took center stage in public discourse after New England’s comeback victory in the Super Bowl over Atlanta. Unfortunately, n…

Michael Lopez on X: All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful - a dive into NFL win probabilities / X

nflWAR: a reproducible method for offensive player evaluation in football

Python's «predict_proba» Doesn't Actually Predict Probabilities (and How to Fix It), by Samuele Mazzanti

Herding Cats: All Models Are Wrong

All models are wrong. Some are useful.

1. Twenty-five percent of the customers of a grocery store - AP Stats

all models are wrong…some are useful”

All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful – StatsbyLopez

Perceptions of probability. : r/coolguides

Being an MLB Super-Team Doesn't Guarantee Anything Come October, News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors